2023 El Niño

This is how we will all have ocean front property. CA should be underwater soon.

Long range forecasts last year for the winter months was dry and warm. Yeah, obviously that didn't play out too well!

SingleShot20G said:

Long range forecasts last year for the winter months was dry and warm. Yeah, obviously that didn't play out too well!

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As I recall, the Farmer's Almanac called for a wet & mild winter, pretty much what we got I think.

I just looked and it also calls for a "neutral to perhaps weak El Nino" this year.

we've been having "monsoon-like" weather in Flag all week. Hot and humid in mornings, then early afternoon sprinkling rain and thunder. We haven't had any really heavy rain yet, but I bet it isn't far off.

There might not even be fire restrictions this summer if it comes early.

We had a nice mini thunderstorm last night, rain suddenly unleashed for a good while. We thought it was early for a monsoon but the behavior hit the mark perfectly. My wife called it in the morning too.

It just got done raining pretty good here in Williams.

This isn't an early monsoon, it's just a storm pattern that produces similar effects. Looks like it's going to be unstable for the next week anyway.

I would not count on an early monsoon. I say that hoping it will prove me wrong, but pre-monsoon-like weather in May is not all that unusual and is usually followed by hot and dry.

I sense we're seeing a climate cycle that's similar to what we typically experienced in the late 70's and early 80's. An early monsoon certainly wouldn't hurt my feelings, and if that comes to fruition, it would definitely give our forests a much needed break from all the explosive wildfires we've experienced the past 23 years. Fingers crossed!

Im not going to cry climate change or global warming, it’s just a cycle as is everything else on the planet. I’ve also seen a few articles on solar flares and geomagnetic activity, and it’s validated by the recent sightings of the Northern Lights at latitudes where it doesn’t typically show up, I believe there were even claims of sightings in northern AZ last week. I think sometime next year is the peak of the sun spot cycle. Not sure if the solar and weather cycles are related but probably have some ties. I welcome the cycles, it’s a nice change. I am hopeful however, for a nice big solar flare next month a day or 2 before we head to Yellowstone for take 2 on a park visit, I would love to witness the Northern Lights. We got squashed on our trip last year with the flooding in the park, so fingers crossed 🤞

Doesn't help that the Earth axis shifted by 7 deg a few years ago because of that big earthquake near Japan.

I found this article interesting;

Whodis nino

AZ~ThunderDan said:

I found this article interesting;

Pole Reversal Happens All The (Geologic) Time

Earth's magnetic field has flipped its polarity many times over the millennia - but this causes no dramatic effects, and will not lead to problems in 2012.

www.nasa.gov

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One must wonder how this would affect bird and animal migrations. Will waterfowl start heading to the arctic in the fall and to the equator in the spring? Will it lead to mass extinctions of those animals?

460 S&W said:

One must wonder how this would affect bird and animal migrations. Will waterfowl start heading to the arctic in the fall and to the equator in the spring? Will it lead to mass extinctions of those animals?

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fun fact: Bird migrations are moving up by about two-three days per decade because of warming trends. (Yes, I know theres an agenda around global warming; I'm not saying it's 100% because of people, I'm just saying the earth is getting warmer on average)

A total magnetic shift would definitely have adverse affects on migration patterns

The magnetic shift, like climate change, is something we cannot prevent, but can prepare for. The climate was changing, animals going extinct and magnetic poles shifting long before man ever came on the scene.

Payson finally got some heavy rain, Started about 4 pm yesterday, Rained hard off and on , Lots of lightning and thunder, went to bed about 8pm, still doing its thing. Was REAL nice, windows open, going to sleep with that going on was relaxing to me. Got about an inch total. We Really needed it as all the spring grasses drying were starting to be a BIG tinder box.

bearfoot1 said:

Payson finally got some heavy rain, Started about 4 pm yesterday, Rained hard off and on , Lots of lightning and thunder, went to bed about 8pm, still doing its thing. Was REAL nice, windows open, going to sleep with that going on was relaxing to me. Got about an inch total. We Really needed it as all the spring grasses drying were starting to be a BIG tinder box.

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Pretty much the same report from Ash Fork for yesterday. About an inch toal, with hail up to just shy of small marble size for an hour or two on and off. Lots of thunder and lightning. Ready for another round this afternoon!

LOL, A Lot of rain yesterday, had water running down the dry wash beds. Suppose to have more today !!!